Inverse-Head-and-Shoulders

Inverse Head and Shoulders:

Success Rate: 83% bullish.

Average Price Change: 20-30%.

Description: The Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern is a bullish reversal formation that signals a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. It consists of three troughs: the middle trough (the “head”) being the deepest, flanked by two higher troughs (the “shoulders”). A neckline connects the peaks between these troughs, and a breakout above this neckline confirms the reversal. Traders view this pattern as a strong indication of buyer strength returning, often marking the beginning of a new upward trend.

1. What is important in Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern?
  • Structure: It consists of three troughs — the middle one (the “head”) being the lowest, flanked by two higher troughs (the “shoulders”).
  • Neckline: A resistance line is drawn across the peaks between the troughs.
  • Bullish Signal: When the price breaks above the neckline after forming the right shoulder, it signals a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
  • Psychology: It reflects sellers losing strength and buyers gradually taking control, leading to a breakout.
2. Who Invented or Used It First?
Historical Roots:

The Head and Shoulders (including the inverse version) is one of the oldest chart patterns in technical analysis, dating back to early 20th-century market studies.

Early Contributor / Analyst:

The pattern was extensively documented and popularized by Richard W. Schabacker

He is often considered a pioneer (sometimes called the “father of technical analysis”)

His books laid the foundation for modern chart pattern analysis

3. Who Analyzed or Used It Afterward?

They formalized and expanded chart patterns like Head and Shoulders

Their work became the standard textbook for technical analysis

Helped modernize and popularize classical chart patterns

4. How Much Did They Invest & Profit Using This Pattern?

Important Reality: There is no publicly verified data showing exact investment amounts or profits specifically tied to this pattern. Most traders use it as part of a broader system.

Richard W. Schabacker

Primarily an analyst and author

Did not publicly disclose trading profits

His contribution is theoretical foundation, not documented trades

Jesse Livermore

One of the earliest traders using similar reversal and breakout concepts

Made and lost millions of dollars multiple times

Not specific to this pattern, but aligned with its logic

John J. Murphy

Primarily an analyst, not known for publishing trade-level profits

Focused on educating traders on patterns like this

5. Key Insight

This pattern is widely respected but not foolproof

Works best when combined with:

  • Volume confirmation
  • Trend analysis
  • Support/resistance levels

Professional traders use it as one signal among many

6. Profitability & Use in Trading
  • Traders’ Success: Many traders have profited using this pattern, especially in identifying major market bottoms.
  • Institutions & Individuals: It became a staple in technical analysis, used by both retail traders and institutional investors to anticipate reversals.
  • Profit Potential: When confirmed with volume and market context, it often precedes strong bullish rallies.
7. Why It became Famous?
  • Reliability: Considered one of the most dependable reversal patterns in technical analysis.
  • Simplicity: Easy to spot visually, even for beginners.
  • Educational Spread: Included in nearly every technical analysis textbook and trading course.
  • Market Psychology: It captures the shift from bearish sentiment to bullish momentum, making it intuitive and widely trusted.
  • Broad Application: Works across stocks, forex, commodities, and crypto markets, increasing its relevance.
Quick Recap
  • Key Idea: Signals a bullish reversal after a downtrend.
  • Origin: Documented by Richard W. Schabacker in the 1930s.
  • Profitability: Yes, widely used by traders to capture reversals.
  • Fame: Reliability, simplicity, and strong psychological basis made it a cornerstone of chart analysis.
1. Pattern Overview
Pattern Type
Bullish Reversal Pattern
Professional Definition
The Inverse Head and Shoulders is a bullish reversal chart pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend. It consists of three troughs: the first and third (shoulders) are shallower, while the middle trough (head) is the deepest. A breakout above the neckline confirms the reversal and indicates a potential upward trend.
Market Psychology
  • Left Shoulder: Sellers push prices lower but buyers step in creating a temporary bottom.
  • Head: A deeper decline occurs as bearish sentiment peaks but strong buying interest emerges.
  • Right Shoulder: Sellers attempt another decline but buyers resist forming a higher low.
  • Breakout: Buyers overpower sellers breaking neckline resistance and shifting sentiment to bullish.
Statistical Success Rate
Thomas Bulkowski’s Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns reports a success rate of approximately 83% for upward breakouts from inverse head and shoulders patterns.
Average Price Move After Breakout
The projected move is typically equal to the pattern height (distance from neckline to head). Average gains range from 20–30% in trending markets.
Ideal Market Conditions
  • Appears after a prolonged downtrend
  • Works best in moderate volatility environments
  • Strong momentum markets enhance reliability
Comparison With Similar Patterns
  • Versus Double Bottoms: Inverse Head and Shoulders has three troughs while double bottoms have two.
  • Versus Rounded Bottoms: Rounded bottoms are gradual reversals.
  • Versus Continuation Patterns: Unlike flags or triangles this pattern signals reversal.
2. Step-by-Step Formation Structure
Required Prior Trend
A clear downtrend must precede the pattern.
Stage-by-Stage Development
  • Initial decline forms the left shoulder
  • Deeper decline forms the head
  • Recovery to neckline resistance
  • Smaller decline forms the right shoulder
  • Breakout above neckline completes the pattern
Support Level Formation
Support is established at the troughs of the shoulders and head.
Resistance Level Formation
Resistance forms at the neckline connecting the peaks between the troughs.
Trendline Drawing Rules
  • Draw the neckline across the peaks between the shoulders and head.
  • Support is drawn at the lowest point of the head.
Minimum Pattern Requirements
  • Three distinct troughs (left shoulder, head, right shoulder)
  • Neckline with at least two touches
  • Right shoulder higher than the head
Volume Behavior During Formation
  • Volume decreases during head formation
  • Light trading during the right shoulder
  • Volume expansion expected at breakout
3. Breakout Structure
Exact Breakout Location
Occurs when price closes above the neckline resistance.
Breakout Candle Characteristics
  • Strong bullish body
  • Close above neckline
  • Preferably accompanied by high volume
Confirmation Rules
  • Daily close above neckline
  • Volume spike
  • Follow-through in subsequent sessions
Volume Behavior During Breakout
Expansion confirms strong buying interest and validates breakout reliability.
Trader Signal Interpretation
Breakout signals reversal of the prior downtrend and entry opportunity for traders.
4. Trading Strategy & Mathematical Formulas
Entry Strategy
  • Aggressive Entry: Enter immediately after breakout confirmation.
  • Conservative Entry: Wait for retest of neckline.
Pattern Height Formula
Pattern Height = Neckline Level − Head Low
Bullish Target Formula
Target Price = Breakout Level + Pattern Height
Stop-Loss Placement
  • Bullish Breakout: Below right shoulder or head low
Risk–Reward Ratio Formula
Risk–Reward Ratio = Target Price – Entry Price Entry Price – Stop Loss
Example Calculation
  • Entry Price = 50
  • Neckline Level = 50
  • Head Low = 40
  • Pattern Height = 10
  • Target Price = 60
  • Stop Loss = 47
Risk–Reward Ratio = (60 − 50) (50 − 47) = 10 3 = 3.3 : 1
5. Volume Analysis Rules
  • Volume decreases during head formation
  • Contraction during right shoulder consolidation
  • Expansion at breakout confirms strength
  • Weak volume breakouts may indicate false signals
6. Key Identification Features
  • Three troughs: left shoulder, head, right shoulder
  • Neckline connecting peaks between troughs
  • Horizontal or slightly sloping neckline
  • Support at head low
  • Trendline drawn across neckline
Typical Timeframes
  • Intraday charts (short-term reversals)
  • Swing trading charts (daily)
  • Positional trading charts (weekly)
Bullish Nature
The pattern signals reversal of a downtrend making it inherently bullish.
7. Failure Conditions & Invalidation Rules
  • False breakout with weak volume
  • Opposite breakout below right shoulder support
  • Early warning: right shoulder breaks below head low
  • Invalidation if price fails to hold above neckline
  • Risk management: always use stop-loss placement
8. Common Trader Mistakes
  • Entering before breakout confirmation
  • Ignoring volume signals
  • Confusing with double bottoms
  • Placing stop-loss too close to neckline
  • Trading sideways markets
9. Chart Description
The Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern begins with a downtrend. Price forms a shallow trough (left shoulder), followed by a deeper trough (head), then a higher trough (right shoulder). The neckline connects the peaks between these troughs. A breakout candle closes above the neckline with strong volume. Traders project the target by adding the pattern height to the breakout level. Volume expansion confirms breakout reliability.