Broadening-top

Broadening Top:

Success Rate: Success rate varies widely but is generally around 60-65%.

Average Price Change: The average decline following confirmation is approximately 15-20%.

Description: The Broadening Top Pattern is a reversal formation that signals increasing volatility and the potential end of an uptrend. It is characterized by successively higher highs and lower lows, creating a widening megaphone-like structure. This expansion reflects market instability, with buyers losing control as sellers push prices lower. A decisive breakdown below the support line confirms the bearish reversal, often leading to a sharp decline.

1. What is important in Broadening Top Pattern?

Structure: It looks like a megaphone or widening formation — prices swing with increasingly higher highs and lower lows, expanding over time.

Bearish Signal: It often appears after a strong uptrend and signals instability, with volatility expanding before a reversal downward.

Breakout Point: The bearish confirmation comes when price breaks below the lower support line of the broadening formation.

Psychology: It reflects growing uncertainty and lack of control — buyers push prices higher but fail to sustain momentum, while sellers gradually dominate, leading to a breakdown.

2. Who Invented or Used It First?
Historical Roots:

The Broadening Top (also called a Megaphone Pattern) is part of classical chart patterns studied since the early 20th century, representing increasing volatility and distribution at market tops.

Early Contributor / Analyst:

The pattern was documented by Richard W. Schabacker

One of the first analysts to describe complex price formations and reversal behavior

Popularization & Standardization:

Robert D. Edwards and John Magee

Edwards and Magee

They categorized broadening formations as high-volatility reversal patterns

Modern Analysts:

John J. Murphy

Explained broadening patterns in modern technical analysis

No Single Inventor:

The Broadening Top evolved naturally as traders observed expanding price swings (higher highs and lower lows) before major reversals.

3. Who Used It in Practice?
Used volatility and distribution-based strategies

Known for trading volatile market tops and reversals

Trading logic:

Higher highs + lower lows → Increasing volatility → Distribution → Breakdown

4. How Much Did They Invest & Profit Using This Pattern?
Important Reality:

There is no verified public data showing exact investments or profits specifically from Broadening Top trades. It is used within broader trading strategies.

Richard W. Schabacker

Focused on research and writing

No disclosed trading profit data

Jesse Livermore

Made and lost millions of dollars

Used reversal and volatility-based strategies aligned with this pattern

Paul Tudor Jones

Built a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund

Profited from major market turning points and volatility expansions

John J. Murphy

Primarily an educator

Did not publish specific trading profits

5. Key Insight

Broadening Top is a bearish reversal pattern

Represents:

  • Increasing volatility
  • Market instability and distribution

Best confirmation:

  • Breakdown below support
  • Strong volume during breakdown
6. Profitability & Use in Trading

Traders’ Success: Many traders have profited by recognizing broadening tops as warning signals of major market tops.

Institutions & Individuals: It became a staple in technical analysis, used to anticipate downturns and protect against losses.

Profit Potential: When confirmed with volume and broader market context, it often precedes significant declines, allowing traders to exit positions or short profitably.

7. Why It Became Famous?

Reliability: Considered a strong bearish reversal pattern, especially after volatile rallies.

Simplicity: Easy to spot visually — widening swings forming a megaphone shape.

Educational Spread: Featured in nearly every technical analysis textbook and trading course.

Market Psychology: It captures the transition from bullish enthusiasm to chaotic volatility and eventual bearish control.

Broad Application: Works across stocks, forex, commodities, and crypto, making it universally relevant.

Quick Recap
  • Key Idea: Signals bearish reversal after widening volatility at market tops.
  • Origin: Documented by Schabacker and Edwards & Magee.
  • Profitability: Yes, widely used to anticipate downturns and avoid losses.
  • Fame: Reliability, simplicity, and strong psychological basis made it a cornerstone of chart analysis.
1. Pattern Overview
Pattern Type

Bearish Reversal Pattern

Professional Definition

The Broadening Top is a bearish reversal chart pattern characterized by successively higher highs and higher lows that expand outward, forming a megaphone-like structure. It typically develops after an uptrend and signals increasing volatility and distribution before a downward reversal.

Market Psychology
  • Buyers initially push prices higher, creating expanding peaks.
  • Sellers respond with deeper pullbacks, widening the price range.
  • The pattern reflects uncertainty and instability, with both sides testing extremes.
  • Eventually, sellers dominate, leading to a breakdown below support and confirming bearish sentiment.
Statistical Success Rate

According to Thomas Bulkowski’s Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Broadening Tops break downward in 60–65% of cases, making them moderately reliable bearish reversal signals.

Average Price Move After Breakout

The projected move is typically equal to the pattern height (distance between the highest peak and the lowest trough). Average declines range from 15–20% depending on market conditions.

Ideal Market Conditions
  • Strong prior uptrend
  • High volatility environments
  • Distribution phases where institutional selling occurs
Comparison With Similar Patterns
  • Versus Broadening Bottom: Broadening Bottom signals bullish reversal, while Broadening Top signals bearish reversal.
  • Versus Ascending Triangle: Ascending Triangle narrows, while Broadening Top expands.
  • Versus Channel: Channels have parallel boundaries, while Broadening Tops diverge outward.
2. Step-by-Step Formation Structure
Required Prior Trend

A clear uptrend must precede the pattern.

Stage-by-Stage Development
  • Initial rally forms the first peak.
  • Pullback creates the first trough.
  • Successive rallies form higher highs, while troughs also deepen.
  • The structure widens, resembling a megaphone.
  • Breakdown below the lowest trough confirms bearish reversal.
Support Level Formation

Support is established at the lowest troughs within the expanding structure.

Resistance Level Formation

Resistance is formed at the successively higher peaks.

Trendline Drawing Rules
  • Draw diverging trendlines connecting higher highs and lower lows.
  • Ensure the structure expands outward.
Minimum Pattern Requirements
  • At least two higher highs and two lower lows.
  • Clear divergence between support and resistance lines.
  • Prior uptrend for validity.
Volume Behavior During Formation
  • Volume often increases with each swing, reflecting volatility.
  • Breakout is accompanied by strong volume expansion.
3. Breakout Structure
Exact Breakout Location

Occurs when price closes below the support line formed by the lowest troughs.

Breakout Candle Characteristics
  • Strong bearish body
  • Close below support
  • Preferably accompanied by high volume
Confirmation Rules
  • Daily close below support
  • Volume spike
  • Follow-through in subsequent sessions
Volume Behavior During Breakout

Expansion confirms strong selling interest and validates breakout reliability.

Trader Signal Interpretation

Breakout signals bearish reversal and entry opportunity for short positions.

4. Trading Strategy & Mathematical Formulas
Entry Strategy

Aggressive Entry: Enter immediately after breakout confirmation.

Conservative Entry: Wait for retest of support (support becomes resistance).

Target Price Calculation
Pattern Height Formula
Pattern Height = Highest Peak − Lowest Trough
Bearish Target Formula
Target Price = Breakout Level − Pattern Height
Stop-Loss Placement

Bearish Breakout: Above the most recent peak or above retest high

Risk–Reward Ratio Formula
Risk–Reward Ratio = Entry Price − Target Price Stop Loss − Entry Price
Example Calculation

Entry Price = 94

Highest Peak = 110

Lowest Trough = 96

Pattern Height = 14

Target Price = 80

Stop Loss = 100

Risk–Reward Ratio = 94 − 80 100 − 94 = 14 6 = 2.33 : 1
5. Volume Analysis Rules
  • Volume often increases during swings within the pattern.
  • Expansion at breakout confirms strength.
  • Weak volume breakouts may indicate false signals.
  • Sustained volume growth after breakout improves reliability.
6. Key Identification Features
  • Expanding megaphone shape.
  • Successively higher highs and lower lows.
  • Diverging trendlines.
  • Breakout below support confirms bearish reversal.
Typical Timeframes
  • Frequently seen on daily charts for medium-term reversals.
  • On weekly charts, Broadening Tops often mark major distribution phases.
  • On intraday charts (1-hour, 4-hour), they signal short-term volatility-driven reversals.
Bearish Nature

The pattern signals exhaustion of buyers and reversal to bearish sentiment.

Market Conditions That Improve Reliability

Strong prior uptrend, increasing volatility, and decisive breakout candle.

7. Failure Conditions & Invalidation Rules
  • False breakout with weak volume.
  • Opposite breakout above the highest peak.
  • Early warning: narrowing swings instead of widening, weakening bearish bias.
  • Invalidation if price sustains above resistance after breakdown attempt.
  • Risk management: avoid trading in low-liquidity markets where broadening structures are unreliable.
8. Common Trader Mistakes
  • Entering short positions before support breakout confirmation.
  • Misidentifying Broadening Tops as channels or triangles.
  • Ignoring volume expansion signals.
  • Placing stop-loss too close to support, leading to premature exits.
  • Assuming all broadening structures are bearish, when some can break upward.
9. Chart Description

The Broadening Top pattern in bearish scenario begins with an uptrend. Price forms successive higher highs and lower lows, expanding outward like a megaphone. Volume increases during swings, reflecting volatility. Support develops at the lowest troughs. A breakout candle closes below support with strong volume. Traders project the target by subtracting the pattern height from the breakout level. Volume expansion confirms the breakout’s reliability.